The create a system of predictive mathematical analysis
Content
Introductory part
. Subject review
. Previous studies review
. Subject relevance
. Purpose and objectives of the
study 1
. Data collection
. Creation of the database2
. Designing a data warehouse
. Mathematical Model
description3
. Data analysis and forecasting
. Applying mathematical tools
Introduction
. Subject review
Russian Federation is suffering from
a heavily misbalanced situation in the level of development of its regions.
This trend can be noticed in many areas, for instance, social and economic
situation in various regions may differ significantly. The Moscow region is far
more developed in many ways in comparison with other regions of the country.
For example, one study concludes that "the gross regional product per capita
in Moscow is more than 2 times higher than the same average in the rest of
Russia".situation has a knock-out effect on various economic and social
activities, including the system and infrastructure of air transport. A huge
part of air cargo and passenger traffic goes through Moscow transport hub
(MTH). This indicates the development of a centralized and misbalanced
structure of transport routes. The ratio of the average outgoing monthly air
freight traffic for ten largest cities of Russia (2010-2011, according to
Trading Clearing House) are shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1
diagram clearly shows that Moscow
beats its closest pursuer (St. Petersburg) more than 10 times. Also it should
be noted that the share of MTH in airline transportation in Russia rose from
30% to 55% over the past 10 years., the MTH has turned into a massive trade and
distribution center for the entire country. For such a big country as Russia
such an unbalanced distribution plays an unfavorable role for sustainable
development and creates a number of serious structural economic problems.
. Previous studies review
data collection
mathematical model
This subject has been raised
repeatedly. Reports, studies and proposals were submitted. Both governmental
authorities and commercial organizations that are members of the cargo and
passenger airline business community have shown their stand on the problem.
Also, the academic society and even the commercial sector of the economy that
is not directly involved in airline business are interested in the problem. All
these parties seriously consider and analyze the problem from different
perspectives which allow to understand the processes currently going on in the
industry.report "Some aspects of the regional airline
transportations" by CEO of Airline Company «Flight» on the International
Air Transport Forum shows how big the cargo traffic is misbalanced between MTH
and other regions. The speaker focuses on such important issues as one-way flow
of goods, very small traffic volume among the regions and the high competition
of air transport with other types of transport. The speaker refers to the data
on the density of the population in the federal districts, the data on the
amount of warehouse space in regions, as well as the data on the inbound and
outbound flows of goods in different cities of Russia. One of the conclusions
of the report indicates that business community expects no change in the near
future in the current pattern of flows as well as no reduction of the existing
misbalance between consumption in the central part of Russia (especially in
Moscow), and in the eastern regions.look at the problem from the academic point
of view is illustrated in the report "Analysis of the status and
development of the air transport system (in Russia)". The author of the
report repeatedly points out to the fact of deteriorating state of the airfield
network in Russia. He provides some interesting statistics, such as "the
number of existing airports in the Russian Federation decreased from 1450 to
351 from 1991 to the present" or "in general depreciation of airfield
infrastructure is close to 80% "(referring only regional airports). Among
the findings of the report is the idea that the government should urgently deal
with this problem by improving the infrastructural suitability of regional
airports.issue was also considered on the governmental level, with some
decisions already made. The Ministry of Transport has submitted the "Road
map" project on the development of regional air traffic until 2030 that
would help to solve a lot of issues in the industry. The project aims at providing
financial support for the airports, development of a minimum transport
accessibility standard, improvement of government regulation, as well as
reducing the cost of regional passenger air fare. In general, the objectives of
the project are very relevant to the industry. The question is whether they
will be fully implemented and how quickly it will be done.article "The
business model of air cargo in the Russian Federation" also should be
noted. Authors focus on transport relations with other countries. The article
refers to the potential of the Russian air transport infrastructure relatively
to the international airline companies. The authors say that in order to
benefit from this potential Russia needs to introduce an 'e-freight' standard,
improve (expand) the airfield network, simplify of admission procedures, as
well as changing of the national legal framework on the issue. A central point
of discussion refers to extension of the national airport network and in
particular to switching from a centralized structure to a distributed structure
of airport network consisting of multiple "hubs" for more efficient
operation of the airlines network.
. Subject relevance
all the facts mentioned above, it
can be concluded that current airport network structure in Russia represents a
centralized formation with its heavy dominating core in the Moscow transport
hub; however, regional airports and airfields in the majority of cases are
characterized by lack of development, lack of adequate infrastructure and the
extremely strong deterioration of the equipment. Also it should be noted that
more than half of traffic by air pass through the MTH, while the flow of goods
among the regions immeasurably small. Considering territorial vastness of
Russia, such an unbalanced situation in the industry is unacceptable. Issues of
restructuring industry are emerging. Some immediate actions must be taken,
including analysis and proposals for the changes in the structure of the air
transport network. This study aims to address this emerging issue.
. Purpose and objectives of the
study
main purpose of this study is to
create a system of predictive mathematical analysis which will allow to plan the
development of air transportation and will provide the possibility to deliver
the concept of the alternative structure of airport system in Russia. The main
objectives of the research are:
· To investigate the
problem and identify the current situation in Russian air industry by reviewing
of existing literature sources, media reports, research articles, etc.;
· To create a test
sample and identify a data structure for further processing;
· To design the data
warehouse and select the mathematical tools that will provide the basic
functionality of the analysis system of air transport in Russia;
· To forecast future
trends in the Russian aviation industry and make proposals for alternative
structure of national airport network using analysis system.
Chapter 1
. Data collection
of data structure and composition
will be the first step in achieving the major objective of this research
project. The following aviation industry standard reporting form #14-CA
"Traffic volume between major air destinations in Russia" was taken
as a basis for providing information. This form requires monthly reporting of
air traffic volume and shipments both domestic and international. An example is
shown in Table 1.
1.
Airline code
(DAL*,
IAL**)
|
Transportation type (REG, IRG)
|
The pair of cities
|
Transportations
|
|
|
From
|
To
|
Passengers
|
Freight, tones
|
Mail, tones
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
DAL
|
REG
|
Saint-Petersburg
|
Krasnoyarsk
|
25
|
0
|
0
|
DAL
|
NRG
|
Moscow
|
Sochi
|
69
|
0,7
|
0,01
|
IAL
|
REG
|
Moscow
|
Berlin
|
75
|
0,4
|
0
|
REG
|
Khabarovsk
|
Saint-Petersburg
|
47
|
0
|
0,01
|
*DAL - domestic airlines; **IAL -
international airlines
reporting form contains some
excessive data not required for further research. Also some relevant data is
missing in the form. An unnecessary data include:
- Airline code (DAL,
IAL). This project deals with domestic air transport flows in Russia; hence,
the inclusion of IAL data in the model is not feasible.
- Transportation
type. There is no need to separate traffic into regular and irregular. This
paper focuses not on the individual airline company's traffic volumes, but on
the volume of traffic between airports in general. Transportation type does not
influence on it.there
is some data that should be added to the form:
- The distance
between airports. This parameter is very important when organizations choose a
transport mode. For example, air transportation will be the best way to carry
cargo from Moscow to Vladivostok due to the vast distance between the two
cities and land infrastructure features of the country.
- Detail of the
airports. The table shows only the names of the cities of departure and
arrival, but there is no detailed information on airports which will be useful
for research.
- A broader
territorial identity. It means, that the name of the area / region / republic
and the name of the federal district will be added to the table. This
information will be also useful in future research.we determine the composition
and structure of the data it is necessary to identify the method of collecting
data on passenger and freight traffic between the airports of Russia for 5-10
years. There are two versions of data collection:
) Collection of actual statistical
(real) data;
) Creating a model data based on
actual trends in social and economic development of the regions., the
collection of actual data on air transportations is not feasible. In Russia
there is no single, objective public source of accurate information in this
area. There is no such an open framework, which would include all the necessary
information for the investigation. Therefore, the study suggests a method of
creating model data for analysis purposes. Such data need to be generated not
only based on common sense, but also taking into account factual information
that could affect the amount of air traffic. Thus, the model data will be
compiled based on:
· the population of
the regions;
· gross regional
product per capita;
· information on the
development of industry in the regions;
· information on the
standard of living in the regions;
· natural seasonal fluctuations;
· total traffic
volume for each year from 2003 to 2011.model part of the data relates only to
the volume of air traffic, while remaining data is real (for example,
information about the airports).comprehensive data collection the study moves
to the next step which suggests creating a structured database of air
transportation that will provide easy handling and storage of information.
. Creation of the database
this stage an operational database
will be created that will include information about air transportations. This
database then will serve for the data warehouse as the primary source. Model
data generated in the previous step is also taken to create the database.the
first step it is necessary to develop a structure of the database. It must
match the structure of model data. Based on these assumptions, the tables that
will display the information corresponding to the data model should be selected
as follows:
· Region - a table
containing information relating to the territory (region name, name of the
federal district);
· City of departure -
a table containing information on the point of departure;
· City of arrival - a
table containing information on the point of arrival;
· Transportation type
- a table containing information about the type of traffic (passenger, cargo,
mail);
· Transportation - a
table containing information on the amount of traffic between two Russian
airports, the distance between them, the month and year of the carriage. Table
structure displayed in Figure 2.
Figure 2
So, in the first chapter the issue
of data composition for the purposes of the study was discussed, the strategy
for data collection was developed, and the relational database has been created
and filled in. This database will serve as the source for the data warehouse,
which will be developed in the next chapter.
Chapter 2
. Designing a data warehouse
stated in the introduction, the
purpose of this study is to design an information system of analysis that will
allow to plan the development of air transportations and will provide the
possibility to suggest an alternative structure of national airport network in
Russia. Therefore, this analysis process can be divided into two logical parts.
The first will concentrate on planning and the second part will deal with
redistribution of air transportation flows.first component of the developing
analysis tool will be implemented in the form of multi-dimensional data storage
system based on Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services. The data warehouse
(definition by Bill Inmon) “is a subject-oriented, integrated, time-specific
and immutable set of data which support decision making”. In the case of air
transportation - decision making means the prediction of future air freight and
passenger traffic volumes. This system will provide data in a multi-dimensional
cube with a fact table that reflects the volume of air freight/passenger flows
between airports and dimension tables, such as time, city of departure, city of
destination and shipment type. The structure of the data warehouse is presented
in the form of "star" and it conditionally looks as shown in Figure
3.
3
database created in chapter 1 serves
as an external data source to the data warehouse.next step is to describe the
mathematical model and the tools that will be used to show the redistribution
of air transportation flows.
. Mathematical model description
of the mathematical model is
important for the implementation of the mathematical tools that will serve as
the second component of the analytical system.whole structure of the air
transport flows among Russian airports can be displayed as a complex network or
a graph. Vertices in the network will refer to airports, while arcs between
nodes reflect the volume of traffic between airports. A fragment of such a
network (with four cities) is shown on Figure 4.
4
figure vertices signed as cities,
and both sides of the arc signed refer to freight volume. Closest arc's number
to the vertices indicates the volume of outbound flow. For example, the average
freight volume from Moscow to Krasnodar - 97 tons, from Krasnodar to Moscow -
65 tons, etc. Also, this information can be displayed in the table as shown
below in Table 2.
2
City In
|
Moscow
|
Khabarovsk
|
Krasnodar
|
Novosibirsk
|
City Out
|
|
|
|
|
Moscow
|
0
|
455
|
97
|
243
|
Khabarovsk
|
374
|
0
|
<2
|
25
|
Krasnodar
|
65
|
2,5
|
0
|
4
|
Novosibirsk
|
196
|
47
|
3
|
0
|
This type of data is collected for
26 vertices, that is, for the 26 largest Russian airports. This is done for the
purpose and scope of the model to be created in this study (that network does
not represent a real airport structure in Russia). From the table view it is
very easy to get a general incoming and outgoing freight volume, summarizing
data for rows or columns.uploading data from the operational database to our
data warehouse, it is necessary to use the method of optimizing the network in
terms of redistribution of air traffic. In the model it is assumed that all
airports will become clustered into groups with one central airport in each
group.the second chapter the data warehouse was designed and mathematical
methods for the analysis of air transportations in Russia were chosen and
described.
Chapter 3
. Data analysis and forecasting
. Applying mathematical tools
section is devoted to applying the
mathematical tools to the predicted data on 2015. The volume of air transport
flows is distributed over a network, depending on the route and the distances
between cities.the mathematical model resulted in the transformation of current
airport network from centralized structure into a distributed network with one
large transport hub in Moscow and six other regional hubs spread across Russia.
These hubs are supposed to be situated in Khabarovsk, Magadan, Yakutsk,
Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Krasnodar. According to system’s prognosis these
cities shall become the transport nodes in the structure of the air transport
system of Russia. As a result, the share of MTH shall decrease from 61% to
20-25%; furthermore, the share of selected hubs should increase in average to
7-15% each.study shows how imbalanced is the air transport system in Russia. A
very large share of air traffic passes through the Moscow Transportation Hub
that excessively overloads Moscow region. On the other hand, the regional air
transport infrastructure remains in a poor state and every year loses its
logistics potential.study attempts to suggest an alternative structure of
airport network in Russia by switching from centralized to distributed
formation with several hubs. If applied, this approach will help to
significantly decrease the logistics burden carried by MTH and at the same time
to ensure the development of regional airports, regions itself, as well as
their overall transport infrastructure. After the processing and analysis of
data with utilization of applied mathematical tools the proposed airport
network will incorporate seven segments. Each segment has a major airport,
through which most of the cargo and passenger flows will pass. Proposed changes
will allow the aviation industry to develop in a more efficient and balanced
way. This can be seen by the example of the United States and Germany. Also
proposed structural changes would positively affect overall transit flows
through Russia.a result of this work a proposal can be made to develop
infrastructure of hubs (identified in Chapter 3) that moves current airport
network in Russia to a distributed model from a centralized structure. Federal
authorities and business community in Russia should both make efforts and pay
more attention to this emerging problem because decision making, including
financing and managing of those projects in the air transport industry heavily
depend on the decisions taken by the State.
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