Socio-cultural foundations of east-european&Russian geopolitics english
ЕВРОПЕЙСКАЯ КОНТАКТНАЯ ЗОНА: 2000
EUROPEAN CONTACT ZONE: 2000
Санкт-Петербург - 2000
SOCIO-CULTURAL FOUNDATIONS
OF EAST-EUROPEAN & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS
This report is based on the theory of socio-cultural systems (SCS) developed by the
author. As a matter of fact, it is one of its possible, numerous applications. First of all - several words about the theory itself as far as it is still a
relatively new thing for Western colleagues.
We work on the SCS theory approximately since 1984. Its developing moves quite
slowly. Between 1984-97 we finished no single book, though wrote and keep on our PC several thousands of pages on Russian, Western, Chinese and Black
African SCS-s. These texts are mainly just preliminary materials. Many times we’ve tried to complete the general theory as well as more specific texts on
various SCS-s, but until very recently - without much success.
Our current problem with the SCS theory is that its abstract description would be
unconvincing and looking more like usual scientific speculation (that is not right). It’s necessary to compile a specific analysis of the existing SCS-s,
but such analysis of one distinct SCS is highly difficult to be made: all the socio-cultural systems are closely connected, and the correct understanding of
each one is only possible in case of taking into account all their interrelations. So, we have to bring out descriptions of all the SCS-s, plus
the theory in general at the same time, that is extremely complicated task: each SCS is a special kind of reality, with its own logic and rules, and it’s
simply impossible to describe all the existing and existed SCS-s in an observable future. Such work would require a lot of time and in general seems
unlikely to be done by two people. Not only the scale of the task itself is the point, but one surely cannot correctly depict all the SCS-s in principle. In
fact, being the people of the Russian SCS, we can examine and accurately describe only it. Muslim, Chinese, Black African SCS-s and others still remain
not entirely understandable; to characterise them in all details we’d have to explain many nuances of their past and present - but to do so we have to be the
people of these SCS-s. It doesn’t mean one cannot understand another SCS at all: the point is detailed examination of the SCS's evolution only - at least,
so we think at the moment.
The SCS theory has numerous applications in the field of geopolitics and analysis of
the space assimilation processes. In this report we'll consider only some aspects, and more specifically - socio-cultural foundations of East-European
and Russian geopolitics. More systematically these were presented in our publications [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7].
1. Socio-cultural processes of the space assimilation do have their own logic that unfolds for
centuries. Geopolitical processes are just the individual manifestations of these fundamental socio-cultural phenomena. The geopolitical level does usually
attract most attention and provoke the most sharp reaction that often leads to its incorrect interpretation. The SCS theory allows for a more accurate
description of the space assimilation processes. Geopolitics, as from the positions of the theory, become just one of its particular applications.
We won't repeat here all ideas and principles of the SCS theory - just refer to
the respective appendixes to this report:
APPENDIX 1. THE TERMINOLOGY AND CONCEPTS USED: DEFINITIONS
APPENDIX 2. TYPES OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL FORMATIONS; SOCIO-CULTURAL TYPE'S INDICATIONS /
QUALITIES
APPENDIX 3. PERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS' EVOLUTION
APPENDIX 4. PERIODS AND SUBPERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS' EVOLUTION
The above presents the general concept of the SCS theory as well as principal facts
of the socio-cultural evolution and dynamics.
2. We've performed comparative analysis of the European and Asia Minor external buffer zones'
evolution. The result of the analysis - atlas of the computer generated space-time models (kartoids) that reflects the logic of this space evolution.
Geopolitical problems of the region and its conflicts appear as particular consequences of the general evolution. Suggested system of the computer
generated space-time models creates a principally new foundation for further geopolitical processes' forecasting / prognosis.
The atlas serves as a foundation for forecasting geopolitical processes in the
entire European external buffer zone. It also reflects and correctly explains the processes in the Balkans, the essence and state of the current crisis there. We
insist that these processes don't possess chaotic geopolitical character, but are consequences of the regular evolution of the region.
Some results of such analysis are presented in the papers of my colleague - Tatiana
Nikolaenko.
Here is just the periodization for all the European external buffer zone's socio-cultural regions and Asia Minor.
Asia Minor as external buffer zone. General description
Subperiod N 1.
As from ancient times up to VIII century BC.
Subperiod N 2.
From VIII century BC until 327 BC.
Subperiod N 3.
From 327 until 180-s BC.
Subperiod N 4.
From 180-s BC until 110 AD.
Subperiod N 5.
From 110 until 380 AD.
Subperiod N 6.
From 380 until 610.
Subperiod N 7.
From 610 until 870-s.
Subperiod N 8.
From 870-s until early XI century.
Subperiod N 9.
From early XI century until late XIII century.
Subperiod N 10.
From second half of the XIII century until 1453.
Subperiod N 11.
From 1453 until 1680-s.
Subperiod N 12.
From 1680-s until 1770-s.
Subperiod N 13.
From 1770-s until 1856.
Subperiod N 14.
From 1856 until 1908.
Subperiod N 15.
From 1908 until 1980-s.
Subperiod N 16.
From late 1980-s and for some future.
Subperiod N 17.
Prognosis: more distant future
European external buffer zone. General analysis
Subperiod 1.
As from ancient times up until 113 BC
Subperiod 2.
From 113 BC until 110 AD
Subperiod 3.
From 110 until 380
Subperiod 4.
From 380-s until mid VI century
Subperiod 5.
From mid VI century until mid VIII century
Subperiod 6.
From mid VIII century until late X century
Subperiod 7.
From late X century until 1241
Subperiod 8.
From 1241 until 1380
Subperiod 9.
From 1380 until 1570-s
Subperiod 10.
From 1570-s until 1700
Subperiod 11.
From 1700 until 1772
Subperiod 12.
From 1772 until 1831
Subperiod 13.
From 1832 until 1870
Subperiod 14.
From 1871 until 1917
Subperiod 15.
From 1917 until 1945
Subperiod 16.
From 1945 until late 1980-s
Subperiod 17.
From late 1980-s and for some future
Cycle 5. Subperiods 18 - 19 - 20. Prognosis
Finnish region
Stage 1-1.
As from ancient times up until early IX century
Stage 1-2.
From early IX century until early XIII century
Stage 2-1.
From early XIII century until late XVI century
Stage 2-2.
From late XVI century until late XVII century
Stage 2-3.
From late XVII century until 1721
Subperiod N 3.
From 1721 until early XIX century
Subperiod N 4.
From early XIX century until 1917
Stage 5-1.
From 1917 until 1920
Stage 5-2.
From 1920 until 1939
Stage 5-3.
From 1939 until 1945
Stage 5-4.
From 1945 until 1991
Subperiod N 6.
From 1991 and for some future
Norwegian - Swedish - Danish region
Subperiod N 1.
As from ancient times up until late VIII century AD
Subperiod N 2.
From late VIII century until early XI century
Subperiod N 3.
From early XI century until early - mid XIII century
Subperiod N 4.
From early - mid XIII century until 1471
Subperiod N 5.
From 1471 until late XVII century
Subperiod N 6.
From late XVII century until early XIX century
Subperiod N 7.
From early XIX century until early XX century
Stage 8-1.
From early XX century until 1920
Stage 8-2.
From 1920 until 1939
Stage 8-3.
From 1939 until 1945
Stage 8-4.
From 1945 until 1991
Subperiod N 9.
From late XX century and for some future
Latvian - Estonian region
Stage 1-1.
As from ancient times up until early VIII century AD
Stage 1-2.
From early VIII century until early XIII century
Stage 2-1.
From early XIII century until 1370
Stage 2-2.
From 1370 until 1570-s
Stage 3-1.
From 1570-s until 1580-s
Stage 3-2.
From 1580-s until 1700
Stage 3-3.
From 1700 until 1721
Subperiod N 4.
From 1721 until 1914
Stage 5-1.
From 1914 until 1920
Stage 5-2.
From 1920 until 1939
Stage 5-3.
From 1939 until 1945
Stage 5-4.
From 1945 until 1991
Subperiod N 6.
From 1991 and for some future
Lithuanian region
Stage 1-1.
As from ancient times up until early VIII century AD
Stage 1-2.
From early VIII century until early XI century
Stage 1-3.
From early XI century until mid XIII century
Subperiod N 2.
From mid XIII century until 1386
Subperiod N 3.
From 1386 until 1462
Stage 4-1.
From 1462 until 1569
Stage 4-2.
From 1569 until 1650-s
Stage 4-3.
From 1650-s until 1795
Stage 5-1.
From 1795 until 1831
Stage 5-2.
From 1831 until 1861
Stage 5-3.
From 1861 until 1914
Stage 5-4.
From 1914 until 1920
Stage 6-1.
From 1920 until 1939
Stage 6-2.
From 1939 until 1945
Stage 6-3.
From 1945 until 1991
Stage 7-1.
From 1991 and for some future
Polish region
Subperiod N 1.
As from ancient times up until VIII century AD
Subperiod N 2.
From VIII century until 966
Subperiod N 3.
From 966 until 1241
Subperiod N 4.
From 1241 until 1386
Subperiod N 5.
From 1386 until 1570-s
Subperiod N 6.
From 1570-s until 1667
Subperiod N 7.
From 1667 until 1772
Subperiod N 8.
From 1772 until 1831
Subperiod N 9.
From 1831 until 1918
Stage 9-1.
From 1831 until 1861
Stage 9-2.
From 1861 until 1914
Stage 9-3.
From 1914 until 1918
Subperiod N 10.
From 1918 until 1980-s
Stage 10-1.
From 1918 until 1921
Stage 10-2.
From 1921 until 1939
Stage 10-3.
From 1939 until 1945
Stage 10-4.
From 1945 until 1980-s
Subperiod N 11.
From 1980-s and for some future
Czech-Slovakian region
Subperiod N 1.
As from ancient times up until VIII century AD
Subperiod N 2.
From VIII century until late X century
Subperiod N 3.
From late X century until 1241
Subperiod N 4.
From 1241 until 1380-s
Subperiod N 5.
From 1380-s until 1485
Subperiod N 6.
From 1485 until 1648
Subperiod N 7.
From 1648 until 1848
Subperiod N 8.
From 1848 until 1914
Stage 9-1.
From 1914 until 1919
Stage 9-2.
From 1919 until 1938
Stage 9-3.
From 1938 until 1945
Stage 9-4.
From 1945 until 1968
Stage 9-5.
From 1968 until 1980-s
Subperiod N 10.
From 1980-s and for some future
Hungarian region
Stage 1-1.
As from ancient times up until mid VI century AD
Stage 1-2.
From mid VI century until late VIII century
Subperiod N 2.
From late VIII century until early XI century
Subperiod N 3.
From early XI century until 1241
Subperiod N 4.
From 1241 until 1380-s
Subperiod N 5.
From 1380-s until 1541
Subperiod N 6.
From 1541 until late XVII century
Subperiod N 7.
From late XVII century until late XVIII century
Subperiod N 8.
From late XVIII century until 1830
Subperiod N 9.
From 1830 until 1917
Stage 9-2.
From 1848 until 1867
Stage 9-3.
From 1867 until 1914
Stage 9-4.
From 1914 until 1918
Subperiod N 10.
From 1918 until late 1980-s
Stage 10-1.
From 1918 until 1920
Stage 10-2.
From 1920 until 1939
Stage 10-3.
From 1939 until 1945
Stage 10-4.
From 1945 until 1980-s
Subperiod N 11.
From late 1980-s and for some future
Romanian - Bulgarian - Moldavian region
Subperiod N 1.
As from ancient times up until AD
Subperiod N 2.
AD until 370-s
Subperiod N 3.
From 370-s until late VII century
Subperiod N 4.
From late VII century until late X century
Subperiod N 5.
From late X century until late XIV century
Subperiod N 6.
From late XIV century until 1480-s
Subperiod N 7.
From 1480-s until 1774
Subperiod N 8.
From mid 1770-s until 1878
Subperiod N 9.
From 1878 until early XX century
Stage 10-1.
From 1908 until 1914
Stage 10-2.
From 1914 until 1918
Stage 10-3.
From 1918 until 1940
Stage 10-4.
From 1940 until 1945
Stage 10-5.
From 1945 until late 1980-s
Subperiod N 11.
From late 1980-s and for some future
Balkan region
Subperiod N 1.
As from ancient times up until mid II century BC
Subperiod N 2.
From II century BC until 370-s AD
Subperiod N 3.
From 370-s until early IX century
Subperiod N 4.
From early IX century until late XII century
Subperiod N 5.
From late XII century until late XIV century
Subperiod N 6.
From late XIV century until late XVII century
Subperiod N 7.
From late XVII century until 1870-s
Subperiod N 8.
From 1870-s until early XX century
Stage 9-1.
From 1908 until 1913
Stage 9-2.
From 1914 until 1918
Stage 9-3.
From 1918 until 1939
Stage 9-4.
From 1939 until 1945
Stage 9-5.
From 1945 until 1980-s
Subperiod N 10.
From late 1980-s and for some future
3. One of the most essential points here is existence of clear correlation in evolution of the European external buffer zone and Asia
Minor as external buffer zone. No detailed description of all these correlations here - only combined general tables.
CHRONOLOGY OF EVOLUTION:
EUROPEAN EXTERNAL BUFFER ZONE
Cycle
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